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Abstract Predicting where introduced species will establish and spread remains a central goal of invasion biology. While climate data are often used to forecast potential occurrence at regional scales, environmental filtering can limit susceptibility to invasion at finer scales. Factors underlying such filtering are important to identify, especially when they influence spread into protected areas set aside for conservation. Useful information about factors limiting invasion can be obtained from historical resurveys. Between 2022 and 2024, we used pitfall traps and visual surveys to resurvey 111 sampling points in two protected areas in coastal San Diego County, California (Torrey Pines State Reserve and the Point Loma Ecological Conservation Area) that were originally surveyed for the non-native Argentine ant between 1995 and 1997. The multi-decade time span between the surveys coupled with the observed distributional limits, which have either contracted (Torrey Pines) or appear static (Point Loma), indicate that the Argentine ant has reached the limits of its ability to invade these sites. At Torrey Pines the soil types with the lowest water retention values were the least invaded in the original survey and were overrepresented among retractions observed in the resurvey. These findings are consistent with experimental work demonstrating the central role of soil moisture in limiting Argentine ant spread in seasonally dry areas. Variation in precipitation combined with changes in human water use will likely continue to influence the distribution of the Argentine ant in semiarid regions. These results generally illustrate the value of historical resurveys in clarifying limits to invasion.more » « less
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